CONTENTS

EMERGING CHALLENGES TO

INDUS WATERS TREATY

Issues of compliance & transboundary impacts of
Indian hydroprojects on the Western Rivers

Dr. Shaheen Akhtar

The paper explores the drivers of the current water discourse in Pakistan and India. It examines how Pakistan’s rights over the western rivers as specified in the Treaty have been violated by India. It analyzes the potential impact of the Indian projects on the natural and ecological flow of western rivers into Pakistan. Finally, it looks into the ways and means to bridge the trust deficit in the implementation of the IWT and adopting of certain cooperative measures that could strengthen the shared Indus water regime by addressing the adverse effects of climate change and environmental degradation on the Indus basin rivers system.

            How important are the Indus basin rivers in the economy and life of the people of Pakistan and India and how water stress is shaping discourse on water in the two countries?

            What are Pakistan’s rights under the Indus Waters Treaty, especially on the western rivers of the Indus basin?

            Is India violating the provisions of the IWT while constructing hydropower projects on the western rivers? How Indian projects affect the flow of the western rivers into Pakistan and what are their transboundary impacts?

            What can be done to ensure better functioning of the Treaty; bridging trust deficit in the implementation of the Treaty and averting growing threat of "water war" between India and Pakistan?

It concludes that The Indus Waters Treaty is coming under stress due to both growing water scarcity in India and Pakistan and ecological threat to the Indus basin rivers system. This has led to an intense water debate in India and Pakistan in which hawks on both sides are talking about water wars and abrogation of the Treaty. The fact is that the Treaty was signed as a permanent solution to the water sharing problem between the two countries when water was in abundance in the Indus system. Given the climate changes underway, water insecurity in the basin has heightened, resulting in politicization of the water issue between the two countries. The growing water stress has coincided with India's ambitious plan to construct a large number of large hydropower plants, especially on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers. The fact that India has not been forthcoming in sharing information and engineering details regarding these projects as required in the Treaty has aroused Pakistan’s apprehension. The projects are not merely run-of-the-river structures as allowed under the treaty but their number and structures allow India to acquire manipulative control that could be used to hamper water flows into Pakistan. The worst scenario for Pakistan is the Indian ability to stop water in lean period and release it in wet season. Further, Indian projects have adverse transboundary impacts both environmental and in terms of power generation as is evident in the case of Neelum-Jhelum project. This has certainly widened the trust gap between the two countries and catapulted water to the top of bilateral agenda, making it a core issue in India-Pakistan relations.

Dr Shaheen Akhtar

Research Fellow at the Institute of Regional Studies.

Regional Studies, Vol. XXVIII, No.4, Autumn 2010, pp.3-66

INDIAN BUDGET 2010-11

Muhhamad Jamal Janjua

It is a well-established fact that contemporary economic management is a year-long process. Even then the presentation of a budget in the subcontinent still holds a significant ritualistic value. The whole country grinds to a halt during the presentation of the budget and this year in India was no different either; weeks preceding the budget were full of speculations and analyses on what one should expect from the forthcoming budget. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee despite the opposition walkout during the budget presentation had a victorious smile on his face as he came out of the Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament). The euphoria that followed saw Sensex going up by 400 points but it soon subsided to an increase of 175 points as finer details of the budget began to emerge.

For the year 2010-2011 it was expected that the government would follow the path of fiscal austerity. After successfully navigating through the global financial crisis the government was expected to wind down the stimulus packages provided in the previous two years. It was also expected that this year’s budget would go a long way in fulfilling the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) Government’s promises on National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP). Contrary to the expectations, the government only had one priority in this budget: to move Indian economy towards consolidated growth in the coming years.

The government plans to achieve fiscal consolidation, not by raising revenues but by cutting back on spending, including expenditures on some important social sector programmes as well as subsidies. This year also saw the government facilitating the rich and corporations yet again, which it views as the driving force behind the Indian economy. The union budget is an important document which reflects the government’s overall economic policies and its priorities in the coming year. This paper aims to analyze the Union Budget 2010-2011, by looking at it as a reflection of “neo-liberal” policies of the Indian Government in the last two decades.

it concludes that the budget ignores the lower-income groups in India in favour of the rich. The ever-rising inequality in the country has been debated by the economists, as to whether India can achieve its goal of becoming an economic powerhouse by ignoring the majority of its population and how long can the government carry on with mere token benefits for the masses.

The government urgently needs to address the economic woes of the poor to fulfil the goal of an economically vibrant and strong India. The finance minister in ending his budget speech declared very pompously: “This budget belongs to the aam admi, (the common man). It belongs to the farmers, the agriculturist…”. But unfortunately nothing could be further from the truth.

Muhammad Jamal Janjua

Research Officer at the Institute of Regional Studies.

Regional Studies, Vol. XXVIII, No.4, Autumn 2010, pp.67-107